Climate
change, caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar
radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, is a
change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change
lasts for an extended period of time. Recently, certain human activities have
also been identified as significant causes of recent climate changes, often
referred to as global warming. (1) US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has
made climate connections with energy and the environment on their website.
Renewable heating and cooling (RHC) is the generation of energy from renewable
technologies and resources to serve and use applications such as heating water
for pools or other uses and space heating and cooling in buildings etc. (2)
It turns out to be such a broad picture to make
a perfect combination between global climate change and energy. So I choose a
specific point, trying to figure out some relationships. Building energy demand
will change in response to future climate change, with cooling and heating
demand generally going in opposite directions. (3) An article entitled
“Changing climate: The effects on energy demand and human comfort”, written by
Kelly Kalvelage was published on the Journal of Energy and Buildings. The
article compared some of the others’ previous work as well. Doctor. Crawley and
Jentsch’s
team’s work have been quoted in this article. Crawley found that
climate change would reduce energy use in cold climates by approximately 10%
while energy use in tropical climates would increase by more than 20% using
Global Climate Models with statistical downscaling. And Jentsch’s team has done
a similar research that they used the UK model to generate global results and
then downscale these to a specific location by statistical methods. However,
these methods may lead to uncertainty results that cannot be quantified, and
they failed to account for other climate variables which can cause occupant
discomfort except temperature.
On the other hand, Kelly Kalvelage’s team
intended to analyze the rising climatic temperature’s effect on the building’s
energy demand. They utilized Department of Energy’s commercial reference buildings
for five US cities of Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Seattle, using
dynamical downscaling to study the impact of changing impact of changing
climate on building energy consumption, building design and thermal comfort
conditions.
In their study, they use the typical
meteorological year (TMY3) data which consists of hourly values of solar
radiation and meteorological elements for a one-year period to represent
site-specific typical climatic conditions. They also simulated 16 DOE reference
buildings for each of the five cities to conduct energy modeling. For each
city, the high, moderate, and low change scenario energy data for heating,
cooling and total energy demand were found by calculating the actual energy
change from the TMY3 data. As for the results, they are shown in the following
graphs. Figure 1 displays the averaged summary energy change results for
heating, cooling, and total energy change for each of the five cities included
in this study. And figure 2 displays the combined total energy demand for the
five cities in this study and are displayed for each building typology as the
change in energy demand (kW h) per building square meter. Consistent with what
previous research has indicated, all building typologies in each city show a
reasonably large decrease in winter heating that is counteracted by an increase
in cooling load for the summer months. If this trend continues, it is apparent
that a changing climate will significantly impact energy consumption if no
design alternatives are considered or the understanding of human thermal
comfort is not challenged to adapt. (4)
As far as I am concerned, I would give the
article an 8 out of 10. The article did a nice job in summarizing and
demonstrating the main object of the study on energy demand with the changing
climate. It provided us with an elaborate background of the study, quoted wisely
the other researchers’ work and pointed out the advantages of their research
methodology: they use dynamic downscaling of future climate scenarios which is
applicable to all locations in the database. Additionally, the article gave us
the reasons why they chose these building stocks and the five cities as their
targets. And their method can be used for any location across the US to better
understand the impact of a changing climate on the most prevailing commercial
building typologies, as they are represented by the U.S. Department of Energy
reference building files for 16 different US climate zones. These future
results could then be used by utility companies, building owners and policy makers
to better prepare for future retrofits and investments. However,
the author paid more attention on the annual energy consumption, maybe some
critical elements in the long-term energy consumption such as the peak demand
will bring in some new insights. Last but not the least, what impressed me most
was their initial goal in getting down to do this study. They hope they can
identify building characteristics that will have the most impact on energy
demand so that building owners can make more informed investment decisions for
future retrofits. They carry out scientific researches not only for finding the
relationship between climate change and energy demand in buildings, but for
occupants’ health, safety and welfare. If more scientific researchers can be done
in this way and be more practical and hold the same initial aim, our environment
can be a more friendly one.
[3]
James A. Dirks, Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand
in buildings: A detailed regional approach, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214010469
[4]
Kelly kalvelage, Ulrike Passe, Shannon Rabideau, Eugene S. Takle, Changing
climate: The effects on energy demand and human comfort, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037877881400228X
Hi Qi, nice post. I was excited when I saw the title because while I am concerned about climate change, my general attention has always been focused on ways to prevent or regulate anthropogenic activities that contribute to global warming; this article was an exciting and refreshing read.
ReplyDeleteThe most interesting part of the article for me was that energy for heating will decrease by 10% in cold climates while energy for cooling will increase by 20% in tropical climates. In the simplest terms, it appears as though there is a net increase for more energy consumption, but I was wondering if it's been estimated that heating or cooling processes consumed the same amount of energy, if one consumed more than the other, or if they had approximately the same environmental impacts. For example, energy for heating may come from burning coal with would release more CO2 into the atmosphere, but cooling processed may use CFCs/CHCs.
I am happy you enjoy the article. I think that you make a reasonable assumption. And the conclusion you mentioned is the conclusion of Crawley's work not the article author Kelly's work. In her work, she didn't mention the energy consumption amount. But you can keep your assumption. That's great!
DeleteThis was a great read! As I was reading this post, I also had the same kind of questions as Taylor in regards to if they had approximately the same environmental impacts? It will be interesting to see if the US Department of Energy will use this data to set higher regulations and standards for the design and construction decisions of new buildings. Also, it would be interesting to conduct similar studies in other countries to see how their data compares with the data conducted in the US.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what you say. Actually in the end of the article, the author said that their method can be used for any location across the US and Canada to better understand the impact of a changing climate on the most prevailing commercial building typologies. And in my opinion, the article seems to pay more attention to identify the most impactful building features so they can prepare for a changing climate. Thanks for reading and sharing, Amie!
DeleteThanks for the great post, Qi! Like Taylor and Amie, the fact that the peak heating load is decreasing, while the peak cooling load is increasing, stuck out to me the most. This trend has interesting implications for global warming. I also agree with Amie, I think a broader scope could provide for a more comprehensive study. I'd like to see studies conducted in colder regions (e.g. Russia), and more tropical climates (e.g. Brazil) and how their heating and cooling load has changed.
ReplyDeleteThis study was focused on buildings, but according to most recent Residential Energy Consumption Survey conducted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, energy use for space heating has actually decreased from 1993 to 2009, while energy use for air conditioning has increased (http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10271). So why are there opposite trends in buildings and in residential homes?
I've also always wondered whether perspectives would be different if climate change was shifting Earth towards another Ice Age versus global warming.
Interesting question, Kesiree! One possibility I can think of is that maybe residents are more likely to choose energy-saving utilities with the development of high-technology, so the total amount of heating in the residential homes has decreased. I am wondering what you are wondering, too. Sorry I cannot help you out. Anyway, thank you for reading and sharing!
DeleteGreat post. Thanks for the thorough introduction it was very helpful. I do have a few questions, what is dynamic downscaling?
ReplyDeleteAlso I don't fin figure 1 very clear. Is total energy the sum of cooling and heating energy changes? Or are there other factors? It is then unclear to me if the energy use is increasing or decreasing. In Baltimore, Seattle and Los Angeles it looks like total energy is decreasing (negative total number) and by more than the energy is increasing in Atlanta and Phenix which suggest the total energy use across the 5 cities is net decreasing. Am I missing or misinterpreting something?
I also think this article should ignite some research into improving cooling processes, if this model is true, and cooling will be a big need in the next century. What are other researchers doing to improve cooling systems or insulation to keep heat out during the summer.
I am also hoping that alternative energy use will grow in use. So I hope we way undershoot these models. Especially if energy prices increase the market for alternative energy will become a more significant player.
Thank you, Daniel! Very useful and meaningful comments. Actually, it is hard for me to understand all of the contents the author presented. I will try my best to illustrate your question in class. And I agree with what you suggest that the article should ignite some research into improving cooling processes! Thank you for reading and sharing!
DeleteI find it interesting that restaurants have the highest energy demand. I know that kitchens can use a great deal of energy, but I thought that hotels or office buildings would have been at the top.
ReplyDeleteInteresting guess! This is only what they found, but you can keep your own idea definitely! Thanks for reading and sharing, Aubrey!
DeleteThanks Cherry! This was an interesting read. The Phoenix area is growing so quickly (wikipedia says it grew by over 40% in the 90's and by over 20% from 2000-2010) which doesn't seem like great news from what I can see from the Kalvalage paper. I wonder what changes and/or safe guards the area will be able to make moving forward to protect residents and become more efficient.
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ReplyDeleteThis was an interesting read for me. Phoenix is growing so quickly (over 40% in the 90's and over 20% from 2000-2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_metropolitan_area) I wonder how the Phoenix metro area will deal with a quickly rising population coupled with quickly rising temps and energy needs. Will people start to take climate change into account when deciding where or if to move? It seems prudent from what we've been seeing in class and in the articles. Thanks Cherry!
ReplyDeleteMary, I am glad you like the reading. The article seems interesting and new for me too. In my perspective, this article deals with the building energy consumption in changing climate in order to make wise investments for the building owners. I think that people will surely take the building energy system into consideration when they choose where to move in. But I don't know what happens exactly in the city of Phoenix, either.
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