Ozone Week 1

A 2016 publication in the peer-reviewed journal Science, outlining “healing” of the ozone layer grabbed the attention of many popular media sources.¹  One of which was the magazine Popular Science a layman’s media source for entertainment and education.²  The Science publication by Susan Solomon is first of it’s kind in that it claims the ozone is healing as a result of human intervention.  This is a groundbreaking claim and demonstrates the work of scientist, politicians, and world leaders to undo harmful damage cause by industrial use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).  Initial reliance on CFCs as aerosols resulted in large quantities generated annually.  It was later discovered that CFCs deplete ozone (O₃).  Ozone is required to maintain the atmosphere we enjoy on earth.  After observations of a growing ozone hole over the poles, action was taken on a global scale to stop and reverse the process.  This was called the Montreal Protocol which was passes in 1987 and resulted in the minimization of CFC use over the years that followed.  The 2016, Science paper is our first conclusive look at the outcome of this global protocol.

The Popular Science article is entitled “Something to celebrate: The ozone hole is really healing” and demonstrates that they are convince things are on the mend.²  The article cites a number of facts from the publication including the overall shrinkage of the ozone hole since 2000 (1.5 million square mile reduction).  As well as stating the results are from reduction in CFCs and changing weather patterns.  It goes on to say that the hole may be completely healed by 2050.  The article continues by focusing on the personal and emotional side of the research.  Solomon, the leader of the 2016, Science publication was also instrumentally involved in the drafting of the Montreal Protocol 27 years earlier.  It is clear Solomon herself is very invested in the research and is excited about the power of policy and the changes it can have.  The article concludes by mentioning that volcanos are the last player in the game leading to the ozone hole.  Volcanic eruptions can release aerosols into the atmosphere which also deplete the ozone later.  However, there is little scientists can do about these and other natural disturbances.

The Science publication does an excellent job of approaching a complex and challenging question.¹  How to track the presence of ozone around the poles while factoring in natural and artificial changes.  Solomon does this by creating a number of models for ozone levels factoring in data collection techniques and natural weather and artificial chemical changes.  Some of these models include Vol-Clean and Chem-Only which eliminate volcanic and chemical changes in the models respectively.  It is worth noting Solomon omits data from 2002 dues to anomalies and much of the data ends before 2015 because of uncertainty less than 90% accuracy.  The publication also mentions that a volcanic eruption in 2015 has resulted in the largest ozone hole to date.  The publication concludes by saying the trends are increasing.  Ozone exists in higher numbers now as a result of the Montreal Protocol.

The Popular Science article does a reasonable job relaying the conclusion of the Science publication without over emphasizing anything.^1,2  Many of the key details of the publication are left out of the article including the accuracy and control testing.  The article does not over step the scope of the publication and try to apply the conclusion to some greater cause or meaning.  Lastly, the Popular Science article does emphasize the individual and human impact Solomon has had in this field, something that has little place in a publication but can be address in an article.  Overall I would give this article a 7/10.  It conveys the key points about the “healing” ozone hole without jumping to any conclusions.

References:

¹ Solomon et al., “Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer,” Science, 2016, 10.1126/science.aae0061

² Griggs M. B., “Something to celebrate: The ozone hole is really healing,” Popular Science, 2016, online: http://www.popsci.com/something-to-celebrate-ozone-hole-is-really-healing

Proof to the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole

 On September 16, 1987, the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer agreed to ban the use of industrial chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which at the time was used in refrigerators and aerosols.^1-3 Then, the ban was enforced on January 1, 1989 in hopes to prevent the Antarctic ozone hole from growing and to protect the ozone layer.^1-3 The reasoning behind the ban placed on the production of CFCs was the impact they had on the environment, specifically, the Antarctic ozone layer.^1-5 When CFCs are released into the atmosphere, chlorine is generated.^2-5 The chlorine generated can become reactive, which leads to the depletion of the ozone layer.^2-5 Susan Solomon and her group at MIT have acquired data to prove that the ban placed on the production of CFCs by the Montreal Protocol has helped in the healing process of the Antarctic ozone hole.⁵

A recent article published by The Huffington Post restates that the efforts taken by the Montreal Protocol to ban the production of CFCs is now being acknowledged towards the help in healing the Antarctic ozone hole. The author discusses that prior to the article published by Solomon in Science, there was very little acknowledgement towards human effort in the help of protecting the ozone layer. Since the release of the Science article, there is now evidence that humans can help toward the improvement of the ozone layer. The article shared multiple quotes from Solomon stating that the outcome from the ban placed on the production of CFCs should give people confidence that we have had a positive impact on our environment. Based on this outcome, similar approaches could be applied to other environmental problems.

Looking further into the Science paper, Solomon goes into great detail to describe her data and simulations that are responsible for providing the proof that the Montreal Protocol is in fact helping the Antarctic ozone hole heal. Solomon discusses the healing of the ozone hole based off the acquired balloon ozone data and satellite ozone data. Then, she discusses the impact that CFCs, dynamics, temperature and volcanic aerosol have on the ozone layer using model simulations. The model simulations specifically used were Chem-Dyn-Vol, Vol-Clean and Chem-Only. Additionally, this article goes into detail explaining why the ozone hole in October of 2015 set a record size of 25.3 million km². The result of this record was due to the volcanic eruption of Calbuco, which counterbalanced the efforts of banning the use of industrial CFCs. Although we saw a record high in the size of the ozone hole in October of 2015, this does not explain the trend observed during the month of September from 2000 to 2015. According to Solomon, the ozone hole has shrunk 4.5 +/- 4.1 million km² during the month of September from 2000 to 2015. She linked this shrinkage to the ban placed on the production of CFCs based upon her data from the models.

The most important issue that I have in regards to The Huffington Post article was that the author gave no proof. The title of The Huffington Post article was “Here’s Proof We Can Solve Global Environmental Problems If We Try.” The title suggests that the article is going to provide proof that we are indeed helping the Antarctic ozone hole heal. However, the author does not describe any of the data or simulations, specifically the information in the previous paragraph, that Solomon acquired to lead her to the conclusion that the ban placed on the production of CFCs contributed to this shrinkage of the ozone hole. In my opinion, without the data, the author of the Huffington Post article has no proof. The author merely glossed over the data and instead oversold the fact that we did something to help the environment. Although he is not wrong by simply stating this fact, he oversimplifies the issue and does not take the many other factors that are involved into consideration. In my overall opinion, there was an agreement between The Huffington Post article and Science article, but this was because The Huffington Post author only stated the key point made my Solomon, which was that we are helping the Antarctic ozone hole heal. I give the Huffington Post article an overall score of 5 due to the lack of proof.

References

1. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Ozone Secretariat. UNEP.

    http://ozone.unep.org/en/treaties-and-decisions/montreal-protocol-substances-deplete-ozone-layer

2. Chu, J. Scientists observe first signs of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. MIT News. June 30, 2016.

    http://news.mit.edu/2016/signs-healing-antarctic-ozone-layer-0630

3. Gronewold, N. Montreal Protocol Eyed as Weapon in Fight Against Climate Change. The New York Times.    July 21, 2009.

   http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/07/21/21greenwire-montreal-protocol-eyed-as-weapon-in-fight-agai-58237.html?pagewanted=all

The Huffington Post Article
4. Grenoble, R. Here’s Proof We Can Solve Global Environmental Problems If We Try. The Huffington Post.         July 1, 2016.

   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ozone-hole-shrinks-montreal-treaty_us_577684c8e4b04164640f9cd8

The Science Article
5. Solomon, S.; Ivy, D. J.; Kinnison, D.; Mills, M. J.; Neely III, R. R.; Schmidt, A. Science, 2016.                          http://science.sciencemag.org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/sci/early/2016/06/30/science.aae0061.full.pdf